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Processes Driving the Intermodel Spread of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation Expansion in CMIP6 Models
| Year of publication | 2024 | |||||
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| Title of paper | Processes Driving the Intermodel Spread of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation Expansion in CMIP6 Models | |||||
| Author | Ije Hur, Changhyun Yoo, Sang‐Wook Yeh, Young‐Ha Kim, Kyong‐Hwan Seo | |||||
| Publication in journal | Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres | |||||
| Status of publication | published | |||||
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The Hadley circulation (HC) has been expanding poleward in recent decades. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models predict that the expansion will accelerate in the future, more so in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). However, the extent of the expansion varies widely among the models. We investigate the mechanisms driving the intermodel spread in SH HC expansion predictions. The intermodel spread is obtained by an empirical orthogonal function analysis on the SH HC trend patterns of 16 CMIP6 model simulations using the historical and shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 scenarios. The leading mode, showing a mean meridional stream function anomaly at the poleward SH HC extent, explains 49.73% of the variance and significantly correlates (r = 0.94) with the SH HC expansion. By analyzing the extended Kuo‐Eliassen equation, we find that the intermodel difference in …